Protests in Brazil
I wonder how many people reading this have NOT heard of the protests going on in Brazil right now. Given that you are all highly intelligent people who like to keep abreast of current events, I expect most of you know at least as much as me on this subject. With that in mind, I’d be delighted to hear your reaction to/interpretation of recent events.
To summarise briefly, the standard ticket price for buses was recently raised by 20 centavos. In Rio, that took a single journey from R$2.75 to R$2.95 (about US$1.50, £1.00) – in São Paulo it’s a little more. On the face of things it seems like a trivial matter doesn’t it?
Crowd control…
In the 3 years that I’ve been in Rio, the bus fare has risen from R$2.35 to R$2.50, then on up to R$2.75 and now R$2.95. There weren’t any meaningful protests with any of those previous increases, so why now? The government line is that the price rise is less than inflation (currently standing at 6.5%). Also, if I compare this standard single fare with the equivalent in London (R$4.20 – R$7.20, depending on payment method), the Rio price doesn’t seem unreasonable. Why are people out on the streets over this? Surely there are more important issues?
I don’t think my opinion has more value than anyone else’s, but seeing as I have this blog, I’ll tell you why I support these protests.
The Inflation Argument
Firstly, let’s look at the inflation argument. In the last 3 years, inflation in Brazil has ranged between 4.5% and 7.3%. The increases in fare have been 15 centavos (a rise of 6.4%), 25 centavos (up 10%) and finally 20 centavos (up 7.3%). So while it is possible that the latest price rise may have come in just under current inflation, if we look at the situation over the last 5 or 10 years, we see that price rises have been well over inflation. The good people over at terra have done the calculations properly (data for São Paulo):
São Paulo bus (green) and metro (orange) prices since 1994, alongside the original fare (R$0.50) adjusted for inflation.
Hmmm, so much for the idea that the price increases are less than inflation.
Aren’t Brazil’s fares cheaper than in other places?
Comparing prices with other cities is at best tricky. Before this has any meaning, we would need to take many other factors into account, such as the cost of living, household income, level of service provided. Yes, London has higher fares, but to compare the London transport system with that of Rio or São Paulo is like comparing apples with oranges. Also, take a look at this damning piece of analysis, nicely summarised over at Eyes on Brazil.
But it’s only 20 centavos!
This is the argument of someone who would willingly submit to death by a thousand cuts; the frog sitting in the saucepan who doesn’t object to an extra few degrees. The official name is Creeping Normalcy. Yes, it’s 20 centavos. Another 20 centavos. Per trip. If the price of the bus in Brazil doesn’t seem like much to you then count yourself lucky. For the poor majority it was already at unreasonably high levels. As for the standards of service and value for money, where to start?
Value for money?
The Transport System needs investment
The transport systems of both Rio and São Paulo (and many other Brazilian cities no doubt) do need serious amounts of investment – as someone who takes a bus and a metro in Rio every day, I can vouch for that. But is the extra revenue generated by raising fares all being pumped back into transport projects? And given the high ticket prices relative to average earning power, is this really the best way to generate investment? Why not make it more expensive to drive a car in urban areas – a congestion charge or other scheme would have the advantage of generating revenue from car drivers who are A) richer than most people using public transport and B) part of the problem. By increasing the bus fares you are taking money from the people who can least afford it.
What about all the other (more important) issues?
There are children living on the streets. Brazil’s political and business worlds suffer systemic corruption. Why protest this one issue? Well, I think there are several points to make here. Firstly, the existence of other issues isn’t a reason not to protest this one. Secondly, I think most reasonable people agree that affordable travel within a city should be the right of every citizen. Thirdly, I think people rightly view this as just one more manifestation of the disdainful attitude that the Brazilian government and big business routinely show towards the majority of Brazilian citizens. Where the Occupy Wall St movement was commonly accused of not having a clear demand, I think the protesters have made a smart decision in choosing a concrete issue to start off with.
The Police, accountability and demanding improvement
A bi-product of these protests has been to highlight another area that needs urgent improvement – Brazil’s police forces. The police response to protests in recent days has been characterised by brutal heavy handedness. Of course the international headlines will be looking at this in terms of the the World Cup and Olympic Games, but I think Brazilians should be demanding a better standard of policing for their own sakes.
I’m not against the police as an institution – a state without police would be an awful place! I hope that if any police who might read this they would agree with me that standards of policing would be improved with better training and higher pay.
One of the things I find most weird about Brazil is the apparent lack of accountability for politicians. The countless stories of politicians who are routinely implicated in corruption scandals and subsequently re-elected is amazing. Where is the incentive to be honest and effective when you can get rich being dishonest and incompetent? I have never met a Brazilian who denies corruption is a problem – so why isn’t everyone out on the street protesting? Peaceful protest is a legitimate and well-worn path for demanding change. Personally I’m delighted to see Brazilians getting to their feet and demanding more from their government. But will all this protest lead to tangible change? Let’s see.
Thank you so much for this, Tom!
I am trying to catch up with the flurry of news reports and the search for a balanced, unbiased story is hard to come by. Well done!
Hey Tracy, no problem! I think there’s a lot more to be said (as other comments below have mentioned) – public spending, the upcoming sporting events, education, health, the wealth and opportunity gaps in Brazilian society, the list goes on. Still, if I’d written about all that I’d never have finished the post right? ;)
Strangely enough I only know about all the protests from my Brazilian friends’ posts on Facebook. The big influential North American papers (namely the New York and L.A. Times) have yet to pick-up the stories. Should be interesting to see where all this goes… Great post!
Thanks Brae! I haven’t done a *lot* of reading around, but I think there should be more in the big international papers today. What have you thought if the coverage? In general it has seemed pretty fair and balanced to me, though it’s always frustrating that a minority who decide to burn a car (etc), get a disproportionate amount of coverage.
The Sao Paulo protests finally made the Today Show (New York City). Sadly, it didn’t get more than 3 minutes coverage. I absolutely agree with why Brazilians are protesting and commend them for sticking-up for themselves. Check out this video sent to me this morning from Brazil:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152925263405315
“I wonder how many people reading this have NOT heard of the protests going on in Brazil right now. Given that you are all highly intelligent people who like to keep abreast of current events,”
Keep abreast: LOL.
Thanks Gritty, it’s good to know I can always count on you for mature and sophisticated analysis ;) (ashamed to say I did laugh…)
I’m pretty sure the demonstrations are about much more than fare increases at this point. Personally, I think it’s great to see Brazilians finally making a stand.
Hey GFE, I agree on both points. I know there are Brazilians who watch the protests in horror and write the protesters off as ‘vagabundos’, but my hope is that the majority use this as a wake up call. Things don’t improve when you have a bit of a moan to your friends or work colleagues. Change in the current context requires activism. My big doubt is whether the dissatisfaction over all these issues can be translated into change at the next elections. Or will people like Paes and Cabral get voted in once again?
A significant number of people demonstrated peacefully today and their protest was about the huge sums of money being invested in the current Copa, next year’s Mondial and the Big One. “Copa nao to nem ai ,quero saúde e educacao..”porra”. I’d want that too
Hey Jonathan, I have to say, my attitude towards the World Cup and Olympics in Brazil has changed a lot in the last 2 years. I can’t say I really support either project any more.
Thanks for this post, Tom. Brae is right: there has been very little coverage here in the US, and it has been superficial. It looks to me as if this is about a whole lot more than an increase in transit fares.
Hey Phil, you’re right, it is. I think the train fare increase lit the touch-paper – the straw that broke the camel’s back. What next, who knows?
Aargh, I had to reinstall OSX and it autofilled my entire name, lol. If you can change it to “Phil,” I’d appreciate it; if not, no problem, I should have looked before posting. Sorry to be a pest…..well, sort of late for that apology, I guess :)
Ha ha! All fixed up for you :)
Yes, it’s more than just about an increase in bus fares. There has been a simmering ember waiting to ignite for quite some time. The catalyst has been a combination of public transport fare increases (with little improvement to the actual service), massive spending on building stadiums for the World Cup (nearly USD30b), lack of investment in public health and education, systemic corruption in government, council and police and soaring inflation. If this had been the case in any European democracy you would have seen protests years ago. Brasilians have not joined forces like this for decades so it is an historic moment for he country. Brasilians have finally found their voice and are telling the government and the world that enough is enough.
Nicely put David. And now that they’ve found their voice – what next I wonder?
I find these protests confusing. People are protesting money being spent on the “showcase” projects, instead of on other things, like public health, transportation, education, etcetera. But wait a second, when it was announced that Brazil had been selected to host the World Cup, when it was announced that Brazil was selected to host the 2016 summer olympics, didn’t I see about this same number of people, in fact judging from the photos and film I see, many of the very same people, out in the streets celebrating? I think I did. I think a lot of these people in the streets perceive that somebody is making out big time from these international events, and mostly what they are upset about is “where’s mine”. That’s exactly what Occupy Wall Street was about. Why did they choose that name and that place? Because the rationale was that the government handed Wall Street a big chunk of change, and the occupiers were saying, hey give me something too, forgive my student loans, pay off my debts too. Brazilians in the streets right now need to keep two things in mind. Number one, if they want real change, say that at the ballot box, which judging by the notoriously corrupt individuals they keep reelecting, they have not done. Number two, Brazil is not Egypt, Brazil has come a long way, and all the protestors have to lose is everything they’ve gained in the last 30 years, that’s all.
Hi Carlos Eduardo – I think it’s a very sweeping statement to say that these are the same people. I don’t think you can draw that conclusion simply because of what, age range? But OK, let’s say that some percentage of the people who have been protesting recently had previously been happy that Brazil had ‘won’ the World Cup and Olympics – aren’t they entitled to protest the way that these events have been organised?
The spending budgets quoted for both the World Cup and Olympics have risen steeply since the events were first announced. The forced removals and demolitions that have been in the news recently weren’t mentioned. Perhaps you could accuse people of being naive to not have realised that these things would happen, but if my government lies to me or misleads me, I’m not going to sit back and blame myself for being gullible! You know there was a point when FIFA were going to ban Baianas from selling Acaraje within 2 kms of the stadium in Salvador? It was only because of protests that they backed down.
I’m not sure I follow your line of argument with this idea that people are going to the streets to demand a ‘piece of the action’ (e.g. pay off my loans, forgive my debts, etc). I don’t believe they’re saying “where’s mine” – they’re saying “Where is ours?“. By that I mean they are demanding better public services for everyone – better health service, better policing, better transport system with fairer pricing. I don’t think these demands are about being jealous of someone else getting some money.
Remember to ask yourself, whose money is this? Much of it is public money and it is being spent in such a way that big business benefits and people who are already rich get even richer. When you live in a city where 22% of the population live in slums I think the reasonable response to the excesses of the World Cup overspending and mismanagement is one of righteous indignation.
I agree 100% with your point that people should make their feelings known at the ballot box. Sadly I believe that part of the problem here lies with the woefully low average standard of education of the Brazilian population as a whole. In such conditions, providing ‘bread and circuses’ seems to be a very effective way of staying in power (and what larger circuses are there in the world than the World Cup and Olympic games?
Very good post Tom. These protests are not about 20 centamos, they’re not about ‘getting a share’ of the spending. Brasilians are tired of the systemic corruption that is like a cancer in this country. The Confederations Cup was the vehicle for these protests so don’t expect that these will be the last. Brasilians are tired of out-of-control spending on showcase events like the World Cup when health and education are left on the sidelines. Yes, I’ve always been a believer of ‘you get the government that you deserve’ or in this case voted for. However, when a majority of the population are poor all it takes is something like the Bolsa to ensure that the current government stays in power. The corruption starts at the top with the government and that is where it first needs to be addressed. And never forget, President Dilma was an activist (or terrorist as she was then labeled). She was arrested for, amongst other things, armed bank robbery.
I believe people always have the fundamental human right of peaceful assembly, for a whole spectrum of purposes, among which is to address grievances they have with their government. We all know these protests are not about the fare increase, and I personally believe they are also not about corruption. The protests against the Collor de Mello government WERE most definitely about corruption, and they were effective because they chased him out of office and out of the country, for a while at least. But corruption is so much less than it was in those days, and prosperity is so much more widespread. Call me an old fart, call me cynical, whatever, but I look at the demographics of the people I see taking part in these protests, and wherever I go in the first world, most especially in the USA, this same demographic slice of people, the GenXers, are all about “where’s mine?”. And yes, that is exactly what “Occupy Wall Street” was about: “where is mine?”. And they don’t like the only honest answer. “Yours” is where you find it and what you make of it. Lula and Dilma put their lives on the line, not for anybody to give them anything, but to just have a fair chance to be able to make a life for themselves, and others not in the priveleged classes to be able to do the same. I wish someone would tell these people that they are very lucky to have the opportunity to make the Brazil that they want. I would ask them to do so without violence, and without embarrassing their country in the eyes of a world that is watching.
I’m with you 100% on the call to protest without violence. Why break stuff? Now it’s my turn to sound like an old fart: this whole smashing windows and burning cars is just childish! But I don’t think Brazil is being embarrassed here – on the contrary, I believe the rest of the world watches events like this with admiration. Of course the front pages might show eye-catching images of a car on fire, or kids in masks, but the overwhelming message I’ve picked up from international media has been supportive.
I think it’s great that there has been so much improvement from the days of Collor de Mello, but Brazil still has a long way to go don’t you think? I applaud Brazilians for demanding more from the people that they elect to govern them.
I think it is a little unfair of you to put this question (“where’s mine?”) onto the lips of the protesters here in Brazil. Have you seen any actual evidence to support this view? It sounds to me more like it’s more of a pre-existing opinion of a subsection of society, rather than a direct observation of these protesters.
I will join the march tomorrow if I can get out of work in time and hopefully that says it all. I recognise that I have been very lucky with the opportunities I’ve had in life – growing up in a wealthy country, receiving a good education, etc, but I am not asking for handouts. I support the demand for a better Brazilian government.
Well written post, Tom. And, special thanks for posting that chart, I have been looking to find a chart like that to show the cumulative fare increases v. inflation, now I have it!
These protests seem to encompass an “all of the above” approach, the variety of signs and one great poster depicting the bus fare as the tip of an iceberg, with the mass of the iceberg being corruption, inflation, and other issues beneath the water level. That is how I see it. A lot of pent up frustration, no doubt accumulated in part as a result of the “live in the moment” attitude many Brasilians have had for years. But, to those who are protesting the stadiums, where were you four or five years ago when the process for seeking these mega events took place, and where were you when the decision to build/renovate these structures occurred? My new favorite phrase with respect to the stadiums is “protesting now is like arguing over birth control after the child is born”. I say forget the stadiums, enjoy them because you have and will be paying for them for years.
One of the things that I noticed in the news this afternoon is that of the 13 who were arrested last night in Centro, 10 have already been bailed out, paying from R$700 to R$3,000. Clearly, these are not lower class individuals. They have no class in terms of their behavior, damaging and destroying public and private property, but in terms of social class, it takes more than a few minimum wages to be able to come up with R$3,000 bail in a matter of hours. I would really like to know more about these specific individuals, where they are from, their family background, their employment status and so forth. They are in no way contributing to anything positive, and they know it. If they have access to that kind of money that quickly, they likely could move out of Brasil, so why complain about Brasil while you are destroying it? I am not saying, “Love it or Leave it”, I am saying if you hate it so much you want to destroy it, why are you here?
Brasilians really do need to assign more value to the ballot box. Electing an illiterate children’s clown to the National Congress, and trading votes for toasters is no way to bring about social change. Electing politicians who have already been convicted of corruption just begs for more. Both Dilma and Lula rose from the streets, participating and organizing protests themselves during the military government. Of anyone, I would think Dilma would understand the frustration taking place and act on it. I did not listen to her radio address today, hopefully she offered some positive comments on how the government intends to respond to these recent protests.
The Brasilian police are another issue. It is probably the last job on this planet I would want. My first few years in Rio I often questioned their “shoot first, never answer questions” policy, but now I have a deeper understanding of the dangers they faced nearly every minute on the job. It is hard to smile at someone who might shoot you in the back as soon as you turn around. But, those days are mostly in the past and there should be some training provided for community interaction, and not just for the purpose of collecting payoff money.
Brasil is a work in progress, no doubt. It isn’t easy to transition from where Brasil has been, from living in the moment because that is all you might get, to living for the future of yourself and your children. It may take a generation to get there. I believe Brasil and Brasilians will get there, though.
Hey PT – thanks for that – great comment! I was really pleased to find that chart too! Mrs Eat Rio and I had been talking about how no one seemed to be showing the figures regarding whether fares had really stayed below inflation and that chart is fairly damning isn’t it?
I am strongly opposed to the protesters who get destructive. Honestly, I think it is just playing into the hands of people who want to paint these protests as some the kind of marginal/extremist event. One thing I heard is that people are doing vaquinhas for the people who need bail money. With the power of social media I guess it is possible that these people aren’t so rich as all that. Who knows?
I was really pleased to read your comments about the police. I think it’s too easy to fall into lazy, simplistic thinking about the police and assume they are the enemy. Let’s remember that the PMs aren’t exactly rolling in the money either. It’s a tough job and like it or not, we all need them.
As always, the comments here are fascinating and it’s good to see people expressing a variety of views in a respectful manner.
It’s risky to make generalizations about a group of people based on their age, social class, or level of education. It may appear that young people who have it so much better than their parents are just being selfish, but we need to be careful not to make assumptions about what is really motivating them. Throughout human history, major social and political changes have often involved activism by young people. And in many cases, their elders were initially dismissive of them. It’s understandable, but not really fair.
The leaders of the protests have urged non-violence, but whenever there are tens of thousands of people marching in the streets, there is always the chance of trouble. Based on the reports I have read, the vast majority of the demonstrators have indeed been non-violent, even when attacked by the police.
The very fact that things are much better in Brazil now than they were 20 or 30 years ago has probably helped to create an environment where people feel that they have the right to express their dissatisfaction. People who feel completely subjugated, who don’t think that anything that they say or do will make a difference, are less likely to protest because they feel that nothing will change no matter what they do.
Brazil has a voter turnout rate that far exceeds that of the United States. Yes, I know that there is a fine for those who do not vote, but still, it seems a bit unfair to tell a population with very high voter turnout that they need to make their voices heard at the ballot box, when they are already doing that. It may be that they’re electing inferior candidates for local and state offices, but the last three Presidents (FHC, Lula, and Dilma) have accomplished a great deal in confronting some of the country’s long-standing problems.
Dilma said on Tuesday, June 18, that “The country has woken up a stronger country” as a result of the protests, and added that “It is good to see so many young people, and adults – the grandson, the father and the grandfather – together holding the Brazilian flag, singing our anthem and fighting for a better country.” (Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22961874)
My point about Brasilan voters is not that they fail to turn out to vote, it is that they often vote “em branco”, or with a single mark indicating no vote cast. That qualifies as “voting”. Or, they have agreed to vote for a specific candidate or political party in exchange for a toaster, or other appliance. Or, two million in Sao Paulo vote for an illiterate children’s clown. Sure, Tiririca has become a pleasant surprise in terms of a voice for education in Brasil, but he could not pass his first literacy test and was basically given a “pass” on the second though he likely would have failed. Yes, it was a protest vote, Tiririca received more votes than any other candidate for any office in that election, but my question is, is there not a single individual in Brasil capable of holding elective office without their primary purpose being to enrich themselves and/ or their friends and family? If not, I can understand voting em branco, Brasil is doomed.
And, I respectfully disagree about Dilma. I like her, but as President she lacks the leadership qualities of the predecessors you mentioned, Lula and FH. I have read that she refuses to meet personally with members of Congress and has others do that for her, she nearly bungled the ports legislation, which became a debacle and required a half Billion Reis in “pork” promises to get it passed. She is popular with a large segment of voters, but seems to be “buying” those votes with ill advised policies such as the 5% annual rate/48 month “Bolsa Sofa” program, under which those who have participated in the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program can buy R$5,000 worth of new kitchen appliances, computers, furniture and TV sets. How does that fight inflation? She has Guido Mantega tinkering constantly, claiming on the one hand that Brasil has a “floating” currency, then selling US $4 Billion a day twice a week in currency swaps to support the Real.
I read a great quote from Margaret Thatcher in the Economist article which Gritty linked to in his reply, “The problem with socialism is that you soon run out of other peoples money”. That seems to be what is happening in Brasil. The health care and education systems provided free by the government are being under funded while the politicians sought to bring high profile international sporting events and build new stadiums instead of addressing the real issues. I understand the frustration here, and though it is now too late to do anything about the stadiums and mega events, it isn’t too late to vote for candidates who have no prior record of proven corruption, and who pledge to act in the best interest of the majority of Brasilians, and who would support prosecuting and jailing those found guilty of corruption. It is all just a big, fun party until somebody goes to jail. In Brasil, somebody in government needs to go to jail to stop this party. Dilma should be leading the charge, not being silent or retreating on this issue. In my view, she contributed to the problem with the manner in which the ports legislation was resolved.
Perhaps we are just witnessing the first reactions to continuous disappointing results of bad economic policy (so well described below).
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21579007-how-squander-inheritanceand-how-easily-it-could-be-restored-fall-grace
It could be that most people in Brazil, including the “educated”, can’t really grasp the reasons to any of this and instead focus on the consequences: rising prices, bloated and useless public works, low growth (due to misguided economic decisions and interventions by a government that really doesn’t understand how the marketplace works). And that last one is what plays the starring role of the underlying causes behind this current wave of discontent.
Off topic: is it just me or does anyone else think Spain is playing on a much higher level than both Brazil and Italy in the Confederations Cup? I am predicting that the Iberian team will easily win the tournament (Brazil and Italy fans please send your letters to Tom).
Btw do you know how many Spaniards it takes to screw in a light bulb?
– Juan (yes, corny; but clever as well).
And Confucious once said….”Person who run in front of car soon get tired, but person who run behind car get exhausted”.
Ha ha! Thanks for the light relief guys! :)
As someone who just beat 11 Brazilians in the office game to predict the scores in the first round of the Confederation games (I am now R$55 the richer!), I feel confident in agreeing with you that Spain appear to be light years ahead of all the other teams. That said, the Englishman in me thinks they’re over-elaborating when they should be sticking the ball in the back of the net. I reckon Brazil will win through on passion.
“I reckon Brazil will win through on passion.”
I agree with you that Spain could have killed Uruguay had they focused more on scoring than retaining possession of the ball, but you contradict this logical stance when saying that Brazil will win the competition due to passion.
Dude, if the teams in the Confederation Cup continue playing at the level demonstrated so far then Spain will crush Brazil, and any other side for that manner.
My prediction: Italy defeats Brazil this Sunday, Spain eliminates Brazil in the semifinals and then breeze by Italy to win the tournament. Care to bet any honor points?
Yeah, on paper I agree with you. I just have a feeling that Brazil have the potential to be lifted by the crowd and the occasion. I also think that if Spain concede a goal or two then all that fancy, intricate passing might fall apart. Sometimes a more direct route can be more effective. What the hey – I’ll put a couple of honour points on the table! ;)
Ah Confucious, so wise, simply timeless. Thanks for this PTRio, and I leave you with yet another of his gems . . . “The well is deep, I wish you well”.
Interesting graphic from the Wall Street Journal showing demographics of those protesting in Sao Paulo and what they say they are protesting. Just over half say they are actually protesting the bus fare hikes, which have now been rolled back in Sao Paulo. Corruption was a reason for protesting for only 40%, though the category “politicians” was cited by 24%. The percentage numbers do not add up because the protesters were allowed to cite more than one reason for protesting.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/brazil%20protests.jpg
Hmmm, it is a very uncertain situation now isn’t it? I know the catchphrase is “It’s not about 20 cents”, but that was a nice, concrete, achievable, measurable demand. When demands are more nebulous (e.g. stop corruption), it is harder to agree on how they can be achieved (or even agree on whether the demands have been met or not). I’m sure there are plenty of politicians who will tell you that there is no corruption – problem solved! ;)
And now, of course, the rollback covers all the major Cities and in Rio also includes the ferry, train and Metro. Having accomplished the initial goal, will the movement continue or will it lose its widespread popularity? It does indeed get more challenging at this point, keeping the anarchists at bay while articulating something more than simply “stop corruption” or “give us what we want”. This should be where organization and leadership take over. There is no shortage of things to protest. Will it be the beach, or will Brailians keep going out to get their “fair share of abuse”. We shall see.